Earlier this week, during a virtual networking event, a group of tech entrepreneurs asked for an explanation of backcasting. I described it as not only a way to guide a firm and its technology toward a desired future, but also as a method for identifying and filling gaps along the way to maximise opportunity.
At this moment, the European Union (EU) stands at a pivotal moment with its renewed emphasis on fostering innovation and achieving digital independence. As geopolitical economic dynamics continue to evolve, a strategic approach is vital for EU tech vendors; not just to navigate uncertainty but to actively seize opportunities along the way for further advancement.
The reliance on global (read: US) tech players as platforms is seen as continuing to impact European innovation. Two recent announcements underpin this. Google warned EU antitrust regulators and its critics that the Digital Markets Act (DMA) is hampering innovation to the detriment of European users and businesses. However, Google is under pressure to address requested charges under the EU’s Digital Markets Act in building their case on compliance. And the EU set out plans to pool funding and expertise in quantum to build a competitive European ecosystem in this key technology area. This funding push goes into the private sector for assistance to attract private funding to help the EU take the lead in quantum technology by 2030. EU tech chief Henna Virkkunen said on 1 July, as she announced the EU Quantum Strategy, that the EU is working to cut its reliance in the sector on the US and China.
Can data save the day? And can filling those holes while backcasting the business direction create independence from reliance on big tech?
Data as the Fifth Freedom and the Drive for Tech Sovereignty
The EU’s single market is well-known for its four freedoms: the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labour. However, a 2024 report by former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta proposes a crucial “fifth freedom” – encompassing research, innovation, data, and knowledge. This recognises data’s role as a prime production factor in modern economies and a powerful catalyst for innovation.
The EU has acknowledged that over-reliance on global tech giants, often headquartered outside Europe, can hinder its strategic autonomy and economic security. This realisation has fuelled a push for “tech sovereignty”, an initiative aimed at building a robust European tech sector capable of global competition and reducing dependence on non-EU entities. Measures such as the European Commission’s AI strategy, the Digital Services Act (DSA), and the Digital Markets Act (DMA) are intended to strengthen the EU’s technological competitiveness and independence.
This drive goes beyond regulation. It’s about enabling the creation of new technologies and investing in strong European infrastructure across critical domains such as AI, quantum computing, and biotech. There’s also growing demand for European-based digital services, driven by privacy concerns and the concentration of power among non-EU tech firms.
A Strategic Opportunity: The US Tax Code Adjustment
Adding to this strategic window of opportunity is a fiscal development in the US tax code. Section 174 of the US tax code governs the treatment of Research and Development (R&D) expenditures. A significant change to this section came with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. For tax years beginning after December 31, 2021, companies can no longer immediately deduct 100% of their R&D expenses in the year they are incurred. For R&D conducted within the country, specified research or experimental expenditures (SREs) must now be amortised over a five-year period. All costs associated with software development are also explicitly categorised as Section 174 expenses and subject to these amortisation rules.
According to tax consulting firm KBKG, these changes have “significantly increased the tax burden on companies investing in innovation, potentially stifling economic growth and reducing the United States’ competitiveness on the global stage.” While bipartisan efforts are underway in the US to repeal or retroactively amend this change, the political landscape remains volatile, and any resolution may come too late for many affected companies.
This tax shift has been cited by many in the tech industry as a driver behind recent layoffs. It also presents a unique window of opportunity for EU tech firms to increase their R&D investments and gain a competitive edge while their US counterparts grapple with rising tax burdens on innovation.
Backcasting: Charting a Course for EU Tech Leadership
In an age characterised by unpredictability, policy shifts, trade disruptions, and macroeconomic instability, traditional forecasting often proves inadequate. This is where backcasting becomes an invaluable tool for EU tech vendors. Unlike forecasting, which projects current trends forward, backcasting starts with a clear, desired future state and works backward to identify the steps, milestones, and investments required to reach that vision, while helping to identify and fill critical gaps along the way.
This strategic approach offers several key advantages for European tech firms:
- Strategic Alignment. Backcasting directly links today’s investments to tomorrow’s objectives, ensuring that current initiatives contribute purposefully to long-term ambitions.
- Justifying Investment. By clearly outlining the journey from the present to the future, backcasting helps organisations articulate and justify long-term investments in innovation and R&D, crucial for securing budgets in a tightly scrutinised financial environment.
- Adaptability and Agility. While grounded in a future vision, backcasting is an iterative process that allows course correction as the global landscape evolves, enabling teams to stay agile yet focused on their end goals.
- Regional Resilience. In a world of increasingly fragmented global interconnectivity, using a backcasting framework to invest in local innovation, talent, and infrastructure strengthens economic independence and supports sustainable growth for the EU tech sector.
By adopting backcasting, EU tech vendors can turn the challenges of an uncertain future into a deliberate, confident path toward sustained growth and competitiveness. It marks a fundamental shift in mindset, empowering organisations not just to react to change, but to proactively shape the future they want to lead.
Partner with Ecosystm to Define Your Backcasting Journey
Envisioning the next decade – and systematically working backward from that future requires both imagination and rigour. My colleague Tim Sheedy and I at Ecosystm can help your organisation shape a clear, actionable backcasting strategy that connects long-term vision to immediate priorities.
We offer a range of ways to support your journey from workshops and internal training to client-facing sessions, webinars, and co-created content. Whether you’re looking to build internal capability or align stakeholders around future goals, we can tailor our approach to your needs.
If backcasting could support your growth or budget planning, we’d love to connect, either in person or via a quick call. And we welcome your feedback at any time. Feel free to reach out to me or Tim directly.
Asia is undergoing a digital renaissance. Central to this transformation is the rise of digital natives: companies born in the digital era, built on cloud infrastructure, powered by data, and guided by customer-centric agility. Unlike traditional businesses retrofitting technology onto old models, Asia’s digital natives have grown up with mobile-first architecture, software-as-a-service models, and a mindset of continuous iteration. They’re not merely disrupting — they are reshaping economies, industries, and even governance.
But we are seeing a new wave of change. The rise of Agentic AI – autonomous, multi-agent systems that handle workflows, decision-making, and collaboration with minimal human input – is set to redefine industries yet again. For digital natives, embracing Agentic AI is no longer optional. Those who adopt it will unlock unprecedented automation, speed, and scale. Those who don’t risk being leapfrogged by competitors operating faster, smarter, and more efficiently.
The path forward demands evolution and collaboration. Digital natives must upgrade their capabilities, while large tech vendors must shift from selling solutions to co-creating them with these agile players. Together, they can accelerate time-to-market and build future-ready ecosystems.
Reimagining Scale and Customer Experience
Asia’s digital natives have already proven that scale and localisation are not mutually exclusive. Grab, for instance, evolved from a ride-hailing app into Southeast Asia’s super-app by integrating services that reflect local habits, from hawker food delivery in Singapore to motorcycle taxis in Indonesia.
Rather than building physical infrastructure, they leverage platforms and cloud-native tools to reach millions at low marginal cost. AI has been their growth engine, powering hyper-personalisation and real-time responsiveness. Shopee dynamically tailors product recommendations, pricing, and even language options to create user experiences that feel “just for me.”
But with Agentic AI, the bar is rising again. The next leap isn’t just personalisation; it’s orchestration. Autonomous systems will manage entire customer journeys, dynamically adjusting pricing, inventory, and support across markets in real-time. Digital natives that embrace this will set new standards for customer responsiveness and operational scale.
To navigate this leap, co-creating AI solutions with tech partners will be crucial. Joint innovation will enable digital natives to move faster, build proprietary capabilities, and deliver richer customer experiences at scale.
Reshaping Work, Operations, and Organisational Models
Digital natives have long redefined how work gets done, breaking down silos and blending technology with business agility. But Agentic AI accelerates this transformation. Where AI once automated repetitive tasks, it now autonomously manages workflows across sales, legal, HR, and operations.
Tokopedia, for example, uses AI to triage customer queries, detect fraud, and optimise marketplace operations, freeing employees to focus on strategic work. This shift is reshaping productivity itself: traditional KPIs like team size or hours worked are giving way to outcome-driven metrics like resolution speed and value delivered.
With leaner but more impactful teams, digital natives are well-positioned to thrive. But success hinges on evolving workforce models. Upskilling employees to collaborate with AI is no longer optional. Data and AI literacy must be embedded across roles, transforming even non-technical teams into AI-augmented contributors.
This is where partnerships with big tech providers can unlock value. By co-developing workforce models, training frameworks, and governance structures, digital natives and vendors can accelerate AI adoption while keeping humans at the centre.
Unlocking New Ecosystems Through Data and Collaboration
Asia’s digital natives understand that data is more than an asset: it’s a strategic lever for building defensible moats and unlocking new ecosystems. Razorpay processes billions in payment data to assess SME creditworthiness, while LINE integrates messaging, payments, and content to deliver deeply personalised services.
What’s emerging is a shift from vendor-client dynamics to co-innovation partnerships. Flipkart’s collaboration with tech providers to deploy GenAI across customer support, logistics, and e-commerce personalisation is a prime example. By co-developing proprietary AI solutions – from multi-modal search to real-time inventory forecasting – Flipkart is turning its data ecosystem into a competitive advantage.
Agentic AI will only deepen this trend. As autonomous systems handle tasks once outsourced, firms are repatriating operations, creating resilient, data-governed ecosystems closer to consumers. This shift challenges traditional outsourcing models and aligns with Asia’s growing emphasis on data sovereignty and sovereign AI capabilities.
How Agentic AI Will Challenge Digital Natives
Even for Asia’s most agile players, Agentic AI presents new hurdles:
- Loss of Advantage. Without Agentic AI, digital natives risk falling behind as competitors unlock unprecedented automation and optimisation. What was once their competitive edge – speed and agility – could erode rapidly.
- Adaptation Costs. Transitioning to Agentic AI demands serious investment – in infrastructure, talent, and change management. Scaling autonomous systems is complex and resource-intensive.
- Talent Shift. Agentic AI will redefine traditional roles, enhancing employee contributions but also requiring massive upskilling and workflow redesigns. HR, sales, and operations teams must evolve or risk obsolescence.
Navigating these challenges will require digital natives to evolve not just technologically, but organisationally and culturally – and to seek partnerships that accelerate this transformation.
Digital Natives: From Disruptors to Co-Creators of Asia’s Future
Asia’s digital natives are no longer just disruptors; they are architects of the region’s digital economy. But as Agentic AI, data sovereignty, and ecosystem shifts reshape the landscape, they must evolve.
The future belongs to those who co-create. By partnering with large tech vendors, digital natives can accelerate innovation, scale faster, and solve the region’s biggest challenges, from inclusive finance to smart cities and sustainable mobility.
