Typically, business leaders rely on forecasts to secure budgets for achieving their goals and objectives. Forecasts take historical trends and project them forward, with added assumptions about what may or may not change in the market or operating environment.
But in today’s volatile economic and political climate, traditional forecasting is increasingly unreliable.
The threat of tariffs, actual tariffs, ongoing and emerging conflicts, political transitions and rising authoritarianism, along with the uncertain impact of AI on employment and productivity, are all undermining not just business and consumer confidence, but also supply chains and manufacturing capacity.
Look at the PC market in Asia Pacific. Shipments have traditionally been relatively straightforward to forecast; but in 2025, projections have swung from a 10% decline to 12% growth, and everything in between! These forecasts continue to shift month by month as market conditions evolve. The same applies to tech and non-tech products and services across many industries. Forecasts are no longer reliable or trustworthy.
So, if we cannot trust forecasts, what can we do to secure budget for our short-, medium- and longer-term initiatives? For many leaders, the answer is “Backcasting”.
When Forecasts Break Down, Backcasting Steps Up
Put simply, backcasting is creating a future vision, and building a plan to make that vision a reality.
For example, imagine you are the Asia Pacific Managing Director of a US-based software company aiming to move from the fifth to the second-largest provider in the region by 2030. To reach this goal, you’ll need to build specific capabilities such as adding distributors; expanding implementation and systems integration partners across ASEAN and India (which means strengthening your partner management team); increasing sales and account managers in tier 2 cities; and developing localised product versions and language support. You might also need to choose a different cloud provider to access certain markets like China and adapt your software to meet local regulations.
Backcasting helps you plan all these steps by starting with your 2030 goal and working backwards to create a clear roadmap to get there.
The benefit of backcasting over forecasting is that it gives your organisation defendable goals, targets and initiatives. It moves the thinking beyond the traditional quarterly targets to a longer-term vision. When global leaders ask you to cut budgets, it provides them with clear insight into how those cuts will affect the organisation’s success in Asia Pacific over the medium to long term. It also helps to understand which resources will help you achieve the longer-term goals and which will not.
Ultimately, backcasting is a better way of helping you defend your budgets from the tactical cuts and short-sighted strategies and sharpens your capability to deliver results in the longer term.
Want to Know More?
You can access a detailed report on backcasting: what it is, how it differs from traditional forecasting, and how it can be applied within your organisation. The report includes examples of companies using backcasting to shape strategic initiatives and support innovation, as well as a scenario outlining how an Asia Pacific tech vendor might use the approach to meet growing regional demands.
We have also helped clients start their backcasting journeys through targeted workshops, internal presentations, training programs and helping them set the backcasting strategy and processes in place. These services can support organisations at a strategic level, by aligning long-term plans with overarching goals; or at a team level, by helping functions like sales and marketing meet specific performance expectations.
We welcome your feedback – feel free to contact me or Alea Fairchild. If backcasting could support your organisation’s growth or budget planning, we’d be happy to connect via call or in person to discuss specific needs.
Here’s how we can help:
- Workshops. In-person or virtual workshops designed to build backcasting capabilities, such as setting long-term goals, creating roadmaps, and shifting focus from short-term tactics to strategic outcomes.
- Training (Internal Presentations & Webinars). Sessions to introduce teams to backcasting, explaining what it is, how it can be used, and why it supports more effective mid- to long-term planning.
- Client-Facing Presentations. Presentations tailored for clients and customers to show how backcasting can support their planning and investment decisions, potentially strengthening alignment with available solutions.
- Podcasts & Videos. Co-created audio or video content with leadership to explore how backcasting fits into current workflows, where the value lies, and how teams can tailor their efforts to organisational priorities.
