Welcome to 2025, the Year of the Snake – now enhanced, of course, with AI-powered features! While 2023 and 2024 saw a surprising global consensus on the potential risks of AI and the need for careful management (think AI legislation), the opening weeks of 2025 have thrown a new, and perhaps more pressing, concern into the spotlight: cost.
The recent unveiling of Project Stargate sent ripples throughout the tech world, not just for its ambitious goals, but for its staggering price tag: a cool USD 500B over four years. Let that sink in. That’s roughly the equivalent of Singapore’s entire GDP in 2023. For context, that kind of money could fund the entire Apollo program and build two International Space Stations, with some spending money left over. It’s a figure that underscores the sheer scale of investment required to push the boundaries of AI.
But then, the plot thickened. A relatively unknown Chinese company, DeepSeek, seemingly out of nowhere, launched its R1 large language model (LLM). Not only does R1 appear to be a direct competitor to OpenAI’s latest offerings, but DeepSeek also claims to have achieved this feat at a fraction of the cost, and using fewer (and potentially less powerful) GPUs. This announcement sent shockwaves through the stock market on January 27th, impacting nearly every stock associated with AI chip manufacturing. Nvidia (NVDA), a key player in the AI hardware space, suffered one of the biggest single-day losses in US stock market history, with nearly USD 600B wiped off its market capitalisation. Ironically, that’s more than Project Stargate’s entire budget plus the cost of an ISS.
This dramatic market reaction highlights several critical trends emerging in 2025. The previously observed consensus on AI risks and legislation is already beginning to fracture (witness the recent back-and-forth on AI regulation). Meanwhile, the exorbitant cost of AI development is becoming increasingly apparent. We’re also seeing a renewed West versus (Far) East rivalry playing out in the AI arena, extending beyond just technological competition. And finally, the age-old debate between open-source and proprietary software is back, with some LLMs, like DeepSeek’s R1, leaning more towards open access than others.
For organisations considering investing in AI, and indeed for all of us whose lives are increasingly touched by AI developments, it’s crucial to keep a close watch on these powerful trends. The risks, the investments, and the potential benefits of AI must be carefully scrutinised and potentially reassessed. The recent stock market correction suggests a necessary pushback against the over-confidence and over-spending that has characterised some areas of AI development. As DeepSeek’s R1 has shown, sometimes it doesn’t take much to disrupt the party.
The question now is: how will the landscape shift, and who will emerge as the true leaders in this expensive, yet potentially transformative, race?
